SB 39: Eagles vs Patriots

OFFENSE

Let’s start off by taking a look at the starring QBs before we move to each teams’ overall offense.

The Eagles Dandy Donovan McNabb posted a sick QB rating of 104.7. New Englands Tom Brady was merely excellent with a rating of 92.6.

Not only did McNabb throw for more yards, more TDs and fewer INTs (3875- 31-8 vs 3699-28-14) but he did it on fewer pass attempts (469 vs 474).

Looking at those numbers I’d have to say that McNabb was the better QB. Does that belief hold up when we look at the offensive numbers for each team? Not solidly.

Because of their running game (and better balance) the Patriots come in to SB 39 with the 7th ranked O overall with the Eagles close behind at #9. The difference of two spots in the rankings is so minor here that it comes out to a mere 6.5 yds per game.

It’s not a surprise to anyone that the Eagles have the higher rated passing offense (7th vs 11th).

But.

McNabb’s completion percentage was a very impressive 64. You can say, “It’d be higher if T.O. hadn’t been hurt for so long.”. But Tom Brady had a completion percentage not far short of McNabb’s at 60.8 . . . and Brady didn’t have a T.O. like guy to throw to for ANY part of the season.

And even though McNabb is easily the more mobile QB and Brady dropped back slightly more often, McNabb was sacked 6 more times than Brady (32 vs 26), and McNabb played only 15 games while Brady was in for all 16. So which O line is more effective? More reliable? Stronger?

Things would seem to begin to separate meaningfully at the running game, where Cancer Corey Dillon helped boost New England to the 7th ranked rushing offense (524 team rushing attempts for 2134 yds and a 4.1 average). But the raw yardage numbers are deceptive.

The Eagles had only the 24th ranked running offense, attempting to rush just 376 times for 1639 yds. But they also had a 4.4 yd average. So it isn’t that they can’t run the ball, it’s that they feel they don’t have to but know that they can.

But for all of McNabb’s superiority as a passer and for all of the Eagles effectiveness in the running game it’s the Patriots who get the ball in the end zone more often. New England head coach Bill Bellijerk has his boys scoring 27.3 pts per game vs the Eagles 24.1 pts – and the Pats played the tougher schedule vs top defenses.

Advantage: Patriots

DEFENSE

There’s very little defensive separation between these teams . . . except in one area.

Overall the Pats (9th) edge out the Eagles (10th) by just 8.9 yds per game.

Vs the passing game the two are a wash. The Eagles (12th) allow less yardage (3212 vs 3400) than the Patriots (17th), fewer TDs (16 vs 18) and have more sacks (47 vs 45). But the Patriots allow a lower percentage of completed passes (58.6 vs 60.7) and have more INTs (20 vs 17).

Vs scoring (yes, I just skipped over the run defenses), both are tied at 2nd and 16.2 pts per game allowed. Each played 3 games vs top offenses: The Patriots played Colts, Rams, Chiefs: The Eagles played Vikings, Rams, Packers.

But vs the run the Patriots have a big edge (6th vs 16th). They allowed fewer rushing TDs (9 vs 13), fewer rushing 1st downs (83 vs 101), fewer runs of 20+ yds (4 vs 9) and fewer yards per rush (3.6 vs 4.3).

Advantage: Patriots

It’s true that the Eagles passing offense matches up pretty nicely vs the raw numbers against the Patriots. But the Pats secondary has been out performing expectations all season long, including vs P. Money and the Colts – and that’s a passing offense even McNabb and T.O. can only wish they were a part of.

T.O. may very well get in some reps. If he does he can expect to be jammed hard at the line of scrimmage, sometimes by two defenders because New England has no fear of “Please Don’t Hit Me” Pinkston and that schmoe, Freddie Mitchell.

To put it more plainly, T.O.’s effectiveness will be severely limited and his presence on the field may actually be a hindrance.

Gut Pick: Patriots

System Pick: Patriots by more than 7

My Pick: Patriots

Why?

The Patriots better O line. By that I mean we should see McNabb on his back and running for his life a good deal more often than we see Brady doing either.

New England’s stronger run defense, which makes the Eagles rely too heavily on a passing game that T.O. cannot help elevate.

Corey Dillon. Even though the Eagles CAN run just as effectively as the Patriots, they’ll be playing from behind, increasing their already high propensity for passing, while the Patriots will have leisure to run the ball against a the Eagles middling run defense.