Week 14 Picks

My picks are in Italics.

Raiders vs Falcons

Ok, so I was wrong last week about Tampa and my boy Brian Griese not having the spunk to stop Atlanta QB Michael Vick.

But this week I really mean it when I say the same thing about the Raiders!

In Week 13 Vick ran for 81 yds against the Bucs D. The rest of his team put up another 82 yds. It amounted to nothing as Atlanta’s single dimension, one player offense couldn’t get it going through the air and Vick tossed 2 INTs (I keep telling you guys he just isn’t a very good QB and if he couldn’t run like a gazelle he wouldn’t have a job in the NFL).

At the same time Tampa QB Brian Griese had an off day (135 yds, 1 TD 1 INT) and the Bucs put up 132 yds on the ground.

Even after being spanked by the Bucs weak offense, or maybe especially after that, there’s no reason not to expect Vick and his legs to make Warren Sapp and Ted Washington look old, slow and in need of retirement.

Bills vs Browns

Over the past three games the Bills have scored 37 (vs Rams), 38 (vs Seahawks) and 42 (vs Dolphins). During those same games QB Drew Bledsoe has thrown 3 TDs 1 INT, 1 TD 3 INTs and 4 TDs 0 INTs, for totals of 8 and 4.

The Bills have finally looked like the team many of us expected them to be from the start of the season.

Bledsoe still seems to lack consistency and could self-destruct at any time, but the Browns offer a minimal challenge and leave me with reasonable hopes that his resurgence will last at least one more week.

Cowboys vs Saints

If not for the Cowboys revival over the past two weeks I’d have to give this game to the Saints. Both teams are statistically unimpressive offensively and defensively, with the Saints having a significant offensive efficiency lead (according to? The Aikmans, of course).

Not long ago it seemed that head coach Bill Parcels had given up on himself and the Cowboys and that the Cowboys were perfectly willing to throw the towel in right along with him.

Things change, but the Saints continue to under perform as they suffer the guidance of an inept coaching staff.

Jaguars vs Bears

My gut says “Jags”, but the Bears D performs to a higher level than it’s raw yardage number would indicate and they never seem to quit.

On the other hand, in two of the Jags last three games (all losses) we saw them struggle offensively against weak defensive teams as they have most of the year. It amazes me that they’ve managed a 6-6 record so far.

This could be an excellent game, because neither team quits regardless of the score.

The wild card in this one is Bears QB Chad Hutchinson. He played well enough last week vs the Vikings, but can he do it back to back? Will he hold up as well when facing a better defense?

I don’t have a lot of faith in him, so my fingers will be crossed.


Ravens vs Giants

Last week someone on this site said something really brilliant about Giant’s QB Eli Manning having his first breakout game vs the Redskins.

That person is now under Federal protection and has gone into hiding.

This week is the NFL remake of Godzilla vs Bambi, starring Ravens Safety Ed Reed as the big, ugly lizard. Guess which role Eli gets to play?

I’d love to see the claymation of this one.

Colts vs Texans

It almost seems silly to write this one up.

The big thing to take notice of is that even though the Texans have a slight statistical edge defensively (29th vs 31st), they’re actually a far less efficient / effective defense than the Colts (defensive Aikman ratings of 24th vs 18th). So if you have a chance to take the Colts at 10 ½ pts it’s probably worthwhile.

Vikings vs Seahawks

The Vikings favored by almost a TD? Why?

The Seahawks, after floundering for too much of the year, took advantage of a week Dallas D last week and put up 39 pts (sadly, the also gave up 43). The Seahawks also gave up 38 pts the previous week to a surging Bills team and the Vikings are a team with the potential to put up big points.

But the Vikings D is miserable and the team just struggled offensively and defensively against a Bears team that is dangerously depleted by injuries on both sides of the ball.

This is another one that could go either way and should be fairly exciting.

Patriots vs Bengals

The Bengals, as Scott mentioned in his recent article, seem to be pulling things together and ready to play a complete game as a team.

This could even be the upset game of the week.

But I’m not laying my money on that bet.

Broncos vs Dolphins

Because the AFC is so strong, Denver may be out of the playoff race with a record of 7-5. They’re only realistic hope of sneaking in on a wildcard is to win out.

The dynamic duo of Pansyhan and Kubiak have never proven an effective motivation tandem when it really mattered, so that isn’t likely to happen.

But that doesn’t mean much to this game when the Dolphins can’t even consistently rely upon their once glorious defense.

This could be Denver’s largest margin of victory this season.

Steelers vs NJ Jets

These teams are closely enough matched that I have to go with the home team to win.

I still think that with the way the Steelers struggle week to week -- especially with some boneheaded choices about keeping RB Deuce Staley in as the primary back last week -- that a loss could be in the cards. But I’m reading this as another very close win for the Bumblebees.

Lovers of upsets may want to take the Jets, especially with the Steelers giving up 6 pts to the spread. They’ve won by 5, 4 and 1 pts the past three weeks against weaker teams than the Jets.

Panthers vs Rams

The Panthers have been dominating weaker teams (scored 30+ pts vs 49ers, Cardinals and Saints) and holding their own when faced with a tough defense (scored 21 vs Buccaneers) the past few weeks.

The Panthers haven’t faced much in the way of offensive powerhouses, but for all the yards the Rams can put up, they aren’t scoring many points (16 pts vs mighty San Francisco last week, 17 vs Green Bay the week before).


Packers vs Lions

The Lions have a chance to pull off the upset in this one, because their defense is marginally better statistically (21 vs 27), and in efficiency (Aikman rating of 21 vs 25).

But for that to happen their offense has to play at perhaps their highest level this season. With the Lions losing at home to the Pack earlier this season by a score of 38 – 10, that doesn’t seem likely.

Then again the Pack is only 3-3 at home this year, and the Lions nearly pulled one out in a similarly difficult game vs the Vikings a few weeks ago, so . . .

49ers vs Cardinals

My gut says 49ers, but the Cardinals are a much better team defensively (didn’t I say something like that before they got smacked around last week?) and a better offensive team by a little bit. They also don’t quit on themselves the way the 49ers often do.

Buccaneers vs Chargers

The Chargers defense is less efficient than its overall ranking of 11th indicates (Aikman ranking of 20th). This is exactly the kind of defense that Tamp Bay head coach Jon Gruden is very good at taking advantage of.

The Chargers have also just finished a run where they beat all three of their AFC West rivals so that they have a possibly insurmountable lead and a lock for a playoff spot. This is an excellent time for a let down game.

SUNDAY NIGHT

Eagles vs Redskins

I won’t believe that the Redskins have turned things around until they prove it to me. One strong game against a weak team is not especially impressive when you’ve under-performed all season long.

MIGHT NOT (be) FOOTBAL

Titans vs Chiefs

Man oh man, excitement personified.

Ok, seriously, this could be a pretty good game.

You have a good offense vs a middling defense and a middling offense vs a very bad defense.

Could be close to 60 pts scored in this one.