Week 3 Picks

This week I've gone head to head against Khalil Kramer from The Post Game

Record: 9-5 for the week. 28 - 18 for the season.

I am Bronczilla the Destoyer! Khalil is 7-7 for the week.

My picks are in Italics. Winners will be Underlined.

Sunday

– Texans vs Chiefs

KHALIL’S PICK: Chiefs

KHALIL SAYS:

”This is what I’d like to say:

Houston outscores Kansas City. The Chief’s defense loses the game because they are just that bad. Houston won’t be able to stop Priest Holmes, but he, nor Trent Green, will be able to put up enough points to stop a very viable Texans offense.

What I expect is that this will be the pep rally game for KC, they come out with some heart, win this, then do nothing the rest of the season, because their defense is absolutely the same as last year.“

BRONCZILLA SAYS:

Is the Kansas City Chiefs’ defense really the worst defense in the league? After two weeks it would seem so, at least vs pts scored.

But the Houston Texans haven’t exactly impressed anyone, not even on offense, and they were expected to be much improved.

Through a short two weeks the Texans are outperforming KC both offensively and defensively, at least statistically.

But, Houston has already lost to two of the weaker teams in the NFL (the San Diego Chargers and the Detroit Lions). Because of that weakness of schedule their stats are inflated positively.

KC lost to tougher teams, so their numbers are – one has to assume – inflated negatively.

Both teams have RB problems.

KC’s elite RB, Priest Holmes, has an injured ankle. He’ll probably play, but don’t expect any break away runs, or even a 100 yd day. He may not even be the feature back, depending on how much this injury slows him.

But starting Texans RB Domanick Davis has demonstrated that he has a problem holding onto the ball and has lost two critical fumbles.

KC also has possibly the best home field crowd and advantage in the NFL. It’s just not easy to win in that stadium.

Expect a very tight game, but I have to give KC the edge.







– Saints vs Rams

K’S PICK: Rams

K SAYS:

”St. Louis will be too much for The New Orleans Saints. The offense will have the Saints defense screaming, “They’re coming in too fast!”.

The Rams win this one easily.”

B SAYS:

The Rams may be playing sloppy ball, but they’re still managing to put up some nice numbers, even considering that they only barely managed a win vs the Cards in Week 1 . . . AT HOME.

Th Saints have had an anemic rushing game and are allowing nearly 400 yds total offense per game.

The Rams are a shadow of their former selves, but should still win against a very shaky New Orleans team at home.


– Dolphins vs Steelers

K’S PICK: Steelers

K SAYS:

”The Steelers beat Miami. The Dolphins cry, point fingers at each other, and we all shake our heads at them. But not a tear for Miami. They have chosen their own fate.

This one is a confident call for me. Pittsburgh Steelers win easily.”


B SAYS:
Both teams are pathetic on offensively and the Miami Dolphins have the worst rushing attack in the league (45 yds per game).

The three factors that tilt this game toward a Miami win are:

1. The Pittsburgh Steelers are giving rookie QB Ben Roethlisberger his first NFL start against

2. Miami’s defense, which is #2 overall and

3. Miami is at home in hot, humid southern FL.

– Falcons vs Cardinals

K’S PICK: Falcons

K SAYS:

”Atlanta wins this easily. They are for real.

Michael Vick is showing the NFL that he can beat you any way you like. Give him time to pass, he’ll beat you. Rush him out of the pocket, he’ll run and he’ll beat you.”

B SAYS:

Do I really need to explain this one? I mean, sure, the Arizona Cardinals could upset the Atlanta Falcons. Kind of like I could walk into my bedroom right now and find Halle Berry waiting for me with passion burning in her eyes.

With Atlanta being 10 pt favorites while giving up almost 320 total yds per game you might want to take the Cards vs the spread, but straight up?

Wait, is that Halle I hear calling my name?

– Vikings vs Bears

K’S PICK: Vikings

K SAYS:

”My boy from IU, Wally Ogunleye and teammate Brian Urlacher are going to be giving Daunte Culpepper fits. But it won’t be enough.

The Vikings are a force this year and nobody on Chicago can stop Randy Moss. Minnesota wins big.”

B SAYS:


The Minnesota Vikings played some stupid football vs the Eagles last week. They let an excellent receiving corps run free off the line, playing soft zones, letting them get behind Vikings DBs without the safties sliding over to help out. It was some of the most boneheaded pass defense I’ve ever witnessed and it made Minnesota’s defensive secondary look even more suspect than we already expected it to be.

Thankfully for the Vikings the Chicago Bears WRs are not quite so frightening and the defense should feel more secure in playing a tighter physical game.

What it’ll come down to is whether or not the Vikings’ offense can out muscle the Bears very strong defense, which is playing without starting safety Mike Brown, who is out for the year with a torn Achilles tendon.

Chicago will also be missing CB Charles Tillman, who will miss at least 7 weeks because of a cracked bone in his knee.

That should leave Randy Moss to run free, making this a very long day for the Bears.






– Ravens vs Bengals

K’S PICK: Ravens

K SAYS:

”I’d like to go with Cincinnati on this, but I have to agree with The Prof that The Bengals haven’t shown me that they have officially turned the corner.

A gut feeling tells me that this game may be the one where Cincinnati does indeed have their big party. But I always feel safe siding with Ray Ray and the Raven defense. Baltimore wins a very unexciting game.”

B SAYS:

I’m not in any way sold on the Cincinnati Bengals having turned things around to become serious playoff contenders. I just don’t see that they’ve made the organizational commitment required for consistent success.

This game showcases two week offenses. The problem for the Bengals is that while they also have an underwhelming defense, the Baltimore Ravens do not.

Defense wins this one in a big way.

– NJ Giants vs Browns

KHALIL’S PICK: Browns

KHALIL SAYS:

”I’m sorry New York. This game will be determined by the QB who wants to win it the most, and that will be Jeff Garcia.

Cleveland is out to make a statement this year and they will use The Meadowlands as one of their tour stops.”

BRONCZILLA SAYS:

Even though the Giants have looked unimpressive, even in winning, they’re actually playing some pretty good offensive football statistically.

It’s their defense, surprisingly, that has taken a dump.

The Cleveland Browns cannot say so much. They’ve been mediocre to bad on both sides of the ball, despite some sweet play out of QB Jeff Garcia, and will not have star TE Kellen Winslow Jr, who will miss at least 6 weeks with a broken leg.

The Browns have a marginally better defense (23rd vs the Giants 28th overall), but the Giants have a markedly better offense and are playing at home.

– Eagles vs Lions

K’S PICK: Eagles

K SAYS:

”The Philadephia Eagles don’t get enough respect and that is probably a good thing. While many expect them back in the divisional championship, many also expect that to be their stopping point.

I like a team that plays with a purpose and some anger. Having a great QB as your leader doesn’t hurt either.


Philly wins this. Detroit is on its way to being a legit team, but not this week.”

B SAYS:

The Detroit Lions are not frauds. They’ve earned their 2-0 record by playing solid football and beating teams that they should have beaten. But they’ve also played a weak schedule in the first two weeks and are not among the NFC’s elite.

The Eagles just won convincingly against a very good Minnesota team – regardless of the Vikings’ idiotic defensive game plan. Until they prove differently they have to be considered one of the NFC’s top three teams.

It should be a close game, because Philly’s defense has given up 411 yds per game so far and the Lions have some play-makers of their own. They just don’t have a defense that can challenge Donovan McNabb and Terrell Owens.

– Titans vs Jaguars

K’S PICK: Titans

K SAYS:

”Do I really have to make a pick on this one? Very tough game to call.

Chris Brown is the real deal. Jville Jaguars will have a hard time containing him as well as they have done on other backs.

I’m going to say, out of absolute subjectivity and belief in Steve McNair as a leader, that the Tenessee Titans win this.”

B SAYS:


The Tennessee Titans and Jacksonville Jaguars both have middling defenses (12th overall for the Jags, 17th for the Titans).

So it’ll come down to who has the stronger offense and the Jaguars come in a clear second place.

The Jags did a nice job of stopping Denver’s Quentin Griffin, holding him to 66 yds rushing. But Denver ran him poorly, sending him again and again up the middle though he is not effective in traffic.

The Titans’ Chris Brown is a stronger back and having an excellent season. He’s far more effective up the middle and could well be the guy to finally take it to the Jags’ D for 100 yds.

– Broncos vs Chargers

K’S PICK: Broncos

K SAYS:

”I live here so I know how much The Broncos hate The San Diego Chargers and live to beat them at home.

The road in the recent past hasn’t been so smooth in The Mile High City. But on Sunday, they run the ball all over the field. Q Griffin has a big game. So does Jake Plummer.

The Broncos defense goes nuts and San Diego goes home bruised. Broncos win big.”

B SAYS:

Denver Broncos CB Champ Bailey is put on the opposing team’s best receiving threat, regardless of his position. Does that mean we’ll seem him covering San Diego Chargers RB Landainian Tomlinson on pass plays?

Regardless, expect Tomlinson to contribute over 100 yds of total offense. The problem for the Chargers is that no matter how many yards he puts up, that will very likely be 75 - 90% of their total output.

– Colts vs Packers

K’S PICK: Packers

K SAYS:

”Many of the pros are calling for Indianapolis to win this, including the Professor. I’d like to stick my neck out and say Green Bay upsets.

If it was in Green Bay, it would not be such a bold call. Since it is in Indianapolis, I’m putting jugular on the block.

The Green Bay defense steps up. Their secondary is better than they are given credit for.

Green Bay upsets The Colts.”

B SAYS:

The defense for the Indianapolis Colts has been every bit as dismal as I expected it to be, ranking 30th overall (giving up total 400 yds per game) after the first two weeks of the ‘04 season. Fortunately for the Colts they’re also putting up 410 yds of offense per game.

Brett Favre and Ahman Green should be able to put up some impressive numbers vs the Colts. But can the Green Bay Packers’ 13th ranked defense hold Peyton Manning and the Colts in check often enough for the Pack to pull out the win?

Because of the Colts offensive / defensive imbalance I expect this to be a close game. If it were played in Green Bay I’d have to give the Pack the nod. But it isn’t, so expect the Colts to win.

Just don’t expect them to cover the spread.

– Seahawks vs 49ers

K’S PICK: Seahawks

K SAYS:

”Seattle takes out years of frustration and gets their revenge on The 49ers.

The Seahawks engine has not yet worked up to full steam. But I think this might be the game they start kicking it into higher gear.

Seattle wins.”

B SAYS:

The Seattle Seahawks and the San Franciso 49ers have both played two middling teams.

The Seahawks have been fairly unimpressive, but won.

The 49ers have played tougher than could have been expected after enduring one of the worst off seasons of any team in the league, yet come away with two losses.

While the 49ers could very well pull of the upset of the week, I’m going with Mike Holmgren’s coaching ability and expecting that he finally gets his offense to play up to the level that we became accustomed to over the ‘03 season.

If that happens the Seahawks could win this one by a wide margin. If not, they end up falling from the ranks of the unbeaten.

Sunday Night

– Raiders vs Buccaneers

K’S PICK: Oakland

K SAYS:

”This one is easy. Warren Sapp makes his statement on the field. Buccaneer parts are strewn everywhere and the Silver and Black attack is too much for Tampa Bay in Oaktown.

The Raiders kill Tampa Bay.”

B SAYS:

Neither the Oakland Raiders nor the Tampa Buccaneers can run the ball worth a damn. Oakland is averaging a whopping 67 yds per game (29th). The Bucs are even worse, putting up just 61 yds (30th).

Oakland, so far, seems the better passing team, though they have no real threat at the WR position.

So it comes down to which team will play stronger defensively and right now it looks like Oakland has the edge. That, along with playing at home, gives the Raiders the W, here.

Monday

Redskins vs Cowboys

KHALIL’S PICK: Redskins

KHALIL SAYS:

”I know who I’ll be rooting for. But I don’t know if they are going to show up.

As long as I can remember, there was little else more satisfying in the NFL than watching The Redskins beat The Cowboys. Conversely there is nothing worse than watching Dallas beat The Skins.

Lavar Arrington will not be a factor in this game as he is injured. Still, I think the Redskins defense will bend but not break.

Dallas puts up big numbers everywhere except in the points column. I’m going with Washington in a close one.”

BRONCZILLA SAYS:

Stop rubbing your eyes, it isn’t an illusion. The Washington Redskins really do have the overall #1 ranked defense in the league and the Dallas Cowboys, much to my displeasure, have the #1 offense.

But the Cowboys also have to play without RB Julius Jones, which leaves no one of any merit to spell broken down relic Eddie George.

The Cowboys were already averaging less than 100 yds per game. That could fall below 60 yds and Dallas isn’t going to win many games when 796 year old QB Vinnie Testaverde has to pass the ball 35 - 40 times per game.

That includes this one.

Expect to see some sick passing yardage put up by the Cowboys and another L going up in their standings.